Fed Funds vs. the 10-Year Yield, 1954–2026
Topic: Money & Markets
In this chart: Fed funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield
About this chart
Each month is one point, with the federal funds rate on the horizontal axis and the 10-year Treasury yield on the vertical. The points are joined in order, so the line is the path the pair has traced over time, and the marker is the latest month drawn. Older stretches of the path are fainter; color and line width follow how far the point sits from the center of the whole series, and the bars on the timeline below repeat that measure month by month, so the timeline shows when. The animation runs the record over thirty-eight seconds, holds on the latest month for two seconds, and loops. The scrubber pauses on any month, and the timeline's measure and the speed can be changed in the controls.
Method
The fed funds rate is the monthly average of the effective federal funds rate (FRED series FEDFUNDS, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). The 10-year yield is the monthly average of the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield (FRED series GS10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Each month is one point, the fed funds rate across and the 10-year yield up, and the months are joined in order. Line color, line width and the height of the bars on the timeline follow one quantity: the distance of the month's point from a fixed center of 4.6% fed funds and 5.6% 10-year yield, the two series' long-run averages, with fed funds differences divided by 7.0 and yield differences by 4.3 before they are combined. The faint diagonal marks where the two rates are equal; below it, the 10-year yield is lower than the fed funds rate. The first month is July 1954, the first with both series; the last month is the latest with both series published.
Data sources
Updated August 2026
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